Isishwankathelo: Ukujonga emva kweemarike zetsimbi kwiveki ephelileyo, ixabiso lentsimbi libonise umkhwa wokusebenza okuguquguqukayo, ezininzi iimveliso zetsimbi zawa zaqala zawa zaza zaphinda zaphindaphinda kuluhlu lwamanqaku angama-30-50;kwizinto eziluhlaza kunye namafutha, i-iron ore dollar index inyuke ngamanqaku e-6, kwaye i-index yexabiso lentsimbi ye-scrap inyuke ngamanqaku angama-51, i-Coke Price Index yawa ngamanqaku angama-102.
Ukujonga phambili kwimarike yentsimbi yale veki, kulindeleke ukuba iqhubeke nokubonisa ukuphindaphinda okubuthathaka ekusebenzeni kwesimo, izizathu eziphambili: Okokuqala, umoya ofudumeleyo ovuthuzayo we-macro-surface, kwelinye icala i-Central Bank ukunciphisa i-quasi. -isiqingatha esipheleleyo sepesenti yepesenti, iyonke yokukhululwa kwexesha elide malunga ne-1.2 yetriliyoni ye-yuan;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuxhaswa ngemali kwe-real estate kuyancipha ngokuthe ngcembe, ngaphezu koko, uNobhala we-Ofisi kaNondyebo wase-US u-Yellen naye weza evela kwi-trump yase-US ukunyanzelisa iirhafu kwi-China ekhokelela kwimiphumo emibi yokunyuka kwamaxabiso amaninzi, kulindeleke ukuba kukhulise ukuzithemba;Okwesibini, isitokhwe sentsimbi saqhubeka sihla, kwaye ukuhla kwanda, iindawo ezininzi, ezinye iintlobo zeziganeko zokungabikho kwenkcazo, ezinye iintlobo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso;okwesithathu, ukusuka kumbono wobugcisa, iimveliso ezigqityiweyo ze-rebound akufanele ziphele.
Imeko yezinto ezahlukeneyo ekrwada
1. Intsimbi yentsimbi
Kule veki, kubonakala ngathi emva kokulungiswa ngokutsha kwamanye amazibuko aseOstreliya, imigodi yaseOstreliya yaqalisa ukwenza intshukumo yokuphela konyaka, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi kunyuke kakhulu, kwafikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lonyaka.Kwangaxeshanye, ukufika kwentsimbi yasekhaya kuphinde kwaphinda kwaqhawuka kumanqanaba asezantsi.Kwicala lemfuno, i-tangshan iye yaqinisa izithintelo zemveliso kwaye yandisa inani lokuhlolwa kweziko elitsha kunye nokulungiswa, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yemihla ngemihla yentsimbi eshushu iya kuqhubeka ihla kule veki;ukwanda kobonelelo kunye nokuhla kwemfuno, umsantsa phakathi koNikezo lwentsimbi yentsimbi kunye nemfuno iyaba banzi, kunye nobungakanani bezitokhwe eziqokelelweyo kwizibuko uyenyuka.Ke ngoko, ngokwembono esisiseko, kule veki ixabiso lendawo yentsimbi liye laguquguquka kancinci kwaye labaleka ngokubuthathaka.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokuphuculwa kwamva nje kwemfuno yeemveliso ezigqityiweyo, amaxabiso ensimbi asebenze ngamandla, enika inkxaso ethile kwimarike emnyama.Ke ngoko, kuthathwe kunye, kule veki amaxabiso entsimbi ekrwada kusenokwenzeka ukuba alawulwe zizijingi ezibanzi.
(2) I-Coke yamalahle
(3) inkunkuma
Njengoko ixabiso leemveliso ezigqityiweyo lizinzile, intshiseko yeentsimbi zentsimbi yokuvelisa iyancipha kancane, ukusetyenziswa kwentsimbi ye-scrap kubonisa ukuphucuka okuncinci, kwaye njengoko uvakalelo lwentengiso lusanda, ukufika kwentsimbi ye-scrap evela kwiinsimbi zensimbi kuncipha kakhulu, kwaye isitokhwe. yentsimbi ye-scrap evela kwiintsimbi zetsimbi kunye neenkqubo zokuhamba okufutshane zihla ngokukodwa, ukulungelelaniswa kunye nokwandisa imisebenzi iyasebenza;inkqubo ende iphantsi kakhulu ekusetyenzisweni, iimpahla ezininzi zihanjiswa kwisigaba sokuqala, inqanaba lesitokhwe lininzi kakhulu, kwaye isimo sengqondo sokulinda kunye nokubona malunga nokulungelelaniswa kwexabiso sinamandla, kwaye ngenxa yokwandiswa okuqhubekayo kwe-scrap-molten. ixabiso lentsimbi okwangoku, umfutho wokunyuka kwentsimbi ye-scrap akwanelanga, iinzuzo ziya kulinganiselwa.Amaxabiso e-Scrap kulindeleke ukuba ahlale phakathi koluhlu olumxinwa kwiveki ezayo.
(4) billet
Ingeniso ye-billet iyaqhubeka nokunyuka, umoya wokurhweba kwimarike ye-billet ukusuka "kungxamisekileyo" ukuya "kuzolile".Ngaphantsi kwemeko yokubonelela nge-billet ngokuzinzile, kunzima ukukhulula imfuno ye-billet kwi-mill rolling mills ukusuka kwindawo yokujonga imveliso yendalo, kwaye ngenxa yezinto ezifana nokuhanjiswa, ukungenisa kwi-port kunye nokuthengiswa ngokuthe ngqo kwangaphambili, njl.Kule meko, kwixesha elifutshane, i-inventory ye-billet yensimbi okanye iyancipha (ingenisa i-Shugang) , kodwa izibonelelo zendawo zinzima ukubonisa i-reservoir (esekelwe kwisiseko sokubonelela) , ukurhweba kweemarike kutshintsha ngakumbi okukhokelwa kukuguquguquka kwexesha elizayo. utshintsho loluvo lwemarike.Amaxabiso e-billet exesha elifutshane alindelwe ngokubanzi ayaqhubeka nokugcina uluhlu olumxinwa lohlengahlengiso.
Ubume beemveliso zetsimbi ezahlukeneyo
(1) intsimbi yokwakha
Kwiveki ephelileyo ulwakhiwo lweziseko zentengiso yentsimbi ziyaqhubeka nokulungiswa, ingqondo yentengiso izinzile ngokuthe ngcembe.Ukusuka kwimbono esisiseko, unikezelo lwensimbi yokwakha kunye nokunyuka kwemfuno, ukubuyiswa kwemfuno kubonakala ngakumbi, uluhlu lwempahla lungenise ukuhla okuphawulekayo, ukuba imfuno esondeleyo yokugcina imeko yangoku, le veki kulindeleke ukuba iwe phantsi kwinqanaba elifanayo. ixesha kunyaka ophelileyo.Oku ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuya kuba yinzuzo enkulu.Amaxabiso entsimbi yokwakha aya kuqhubeka ephinda abuyele kule veki, kodwa ukudodobala ngokuthe ngcembe kwemfuno emantla, ukusebenza kweemarike ezisezantsi, amaxabiso emarike yengingqi anokwahlulwa, umsantsa wamaxabiso kwinkqubo yokulungisa unokwandisa.
(2) iipleyiti eziphakathi nezinzima
Ukujonga emva kwimakethi yasekhaya yeveki ephelileyo yepleyiti ephakathi kunye nenzima, imeko iyonke yaqala phezulu kwaye yehla.Ngexesha elifutshane, kugxininiso oluphambili kule miba ilandelayo: inqanaba lokubonelela, kukho ukungafani okuthile kwindlela yokubonelela ngekamva ngoku, kwelinye icala, ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwemveliso kulindeleke ukuba kubekho ngoDisemba, kodwa kwelinye icala. , Ukuthintelwa kwemveliso yeeOlimpiki zaseBusika kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo kuya kuba nefuthe elithile kwimveliso yeplate ephakathi;kwikhonkco lokujikeleza, umahluko wangoku wamaxabiso wengingqi wepleyiti ethafeni uncinci, ubuncwane bobutyebi buhlwempuzekile, kwaye kukho indawo ethile yealloyi ephantsi, umahluko phakathi kwexabiso leendleko ukusuka emantla ukuya empuma yeTshayina kunye Ixabiso lemarike limalunga ne-100 Yuan/toni, eya kuba ngowona mthombo uphambili ukuya emazantsi.Kulindeleke ukuba umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-alloy ephantsi kunye nepleyiti ecacileyo iya kubonisa umkhwa wokulungisa kwixesha elizayo.Kwicala lemfuno, ngasekupheleni konyaka, imfuno yexesha iya kuwa, eyona ndlela, nangona ixesha elifutshane okanye ngenxa yeenguqu zexesha lokuguquguquka kwexabiso, kodwa kwixesha elide, imfuno ayiyi kuphinda ibuyele. ngokubalulekileyo.Integrated Forecast, kulindeleke ukuba kule veki amaxabiso epleyiti ashinyeneyo kuluhlu olumxinwa lokothuka.
(3) ukubanda kunye neHot Rolling
Ukusuka kumbono wokubonelela, iingeniso ze-hot rolling mill ziye zachacha ngokucacileyo kwixesha elizayo elikufutshane, kodwa isiphumo esipheleleyo sisathintelwa ngokucacileyo ngumgaqo-nkqubo, okwenza ukuba isantya sokubuyisela sithobe, ngoko ke, okwangoku, unikezelo jikelele luya kuhlala luphantsi ngoDisemba;ukusuka kwii-Steel Mills'orders ezifunyenwe ngoDisemba, kukho ukuphucuka okubonakalayo kwii-hot-line odolo kwaye umsantsa uphucukile;kunye ne-cold-line ayikwazi ukusonjululwa ngokufanelekileyo ngenxa yengxaki ye-auto chips, imfuno ye-real estate drag, ukwehla kokusetyenziswa, imveliso yasekhaya yezixhobo zendlu yokwehla, i-inventory yemarike kunye nezinye izinto, ezikhokelela kwisithuba somyalelo wensimbi kunzima ukuphucula.Ke kwindlela yamva, uxinzelelo lwenkqubo ebandayo luselukhulu kunenkqubo yobushushu.Ukususela kwingxelo esezantsi, umyalelo awuzange ubonise ukuphuculwa okuphawulekayo, kodwa i-inventory yayo ephantsi, idinga nje ukuthatha ukuhanjiswa kwemeko.Ukongezelela, inzuzo yomyalelo omtsha ingaba, ngoko ukugcinwa kwebusika ukuzimisela kuye kwanda, kuba ukusetyenziswa okuqikelelwayo kuya kuphuculwa.Ngokophando lukaMysteel, inkcitho yabathengi isalindeleke ukuba izinzile ngoDisemba ukusuka ngoNovemba.Ingxelo esuka ekupheleni esezantsi ibonisa ukuba inkunzi kwicandelo lokwakha isahleli iqinile kwaye ayibonisi zimpawu zokulula ukuya ekupheleni konyaka, ngelixa amanye amacandelo elindeleke ukuba aphinde aphinde aphinde aphinde aphinde abuyele ngoDisemba ukuze avale ingeniso yexesha elide.Lilonke: Imfuno izinzile okwethutyana, ukunyuka kobonelelo akubonakali, unikezelo kunye nemfuno zibonakalisa ibhalansi eqinile.Kuyo yonke imboni yokugoba, uxinzelelo oluvela ezantsi ukuya phezulu, imeko yangoku ye-inventri ephantsi, kunzima ukwakha ukuzithemba kwimarike kuya kuxhaswa, akulindelekanga ukuba kuqinisekiswe ngokufanelekileyo kule veki, kuba ixabiso lisekhona. ukulungiswa komothuko.
(4) intsimbi engenasici
Okwangoku, unikezelo luhlala luqhelekileyo okanye kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kodwa imfuno ibuthathaka.Uninzi lwezixhobo zentsimbi zisathatha iiodolo ngoDisemba.Abarhwebi kunye nezitokhwe ezisezantsi zihamba ngokukhawuleza ekupheleni konyaka.Inokwenzeka yokuqhuma kweemfuno ngaphambi konyaka kuncinci, amaxabiso angama-304 kulindeleke ukuba ahlale eguquguqukayo kwaye engenamandla kule veki.Okwangoku, ininzi yemveliso yangempela yentsimbi ibe yilahleko, ukuhla kwexabiso elizayo nako kulinganiselwe.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-07-2021