Isishwankathelo: Ukujonga emva kwimarike yensimbi kwiveki ephelileyo, ixabiso lentsimbi libonise umkhwa wokusebenza okuguquguqukayo.Uninzi lweemveliso zetsimbi zavuka kuqala kwaye zawela kuluhlu lwamanqaku angama-30.Ngokuphathelele izinto eziluhlaza, i-iron ore index ye-iron inyuke ngamanqaku e-4, i-Index ye-Steel Price Index yavuka ngamanqaku angama-64, ixabiso lexabiso le-coke lawa ngamanqaku angama-94.Ukujonga phambili kwimarike yentsimbi kule veki, kulindeleke ukuba imeko iya kuqhubeka ibonisa ukusebenza kwe-choppy.Ezona zizathu ziphambili zezi zilandelayo: Okokuqala, inkomfa yezoqoqosho esembindini igqibe ekubeni imisele unyaka wama-2022 njengonyaka ozinzile;kwelinye icala, iqaqambise uxinzelelo olukhulu kuqoqosho lwangoku kwaye nakwixesha elizayo, kwelinye icala, ikwabonisa ukuba imeko yezoqoqosho iyonke ngowama-2022 okanye inkqubela-phambili ezinzileyo;okwesibini, ukunyuka okuncinci kwinyanga yemveliso yentsimbi, ukuhla kwe-inventory kuyancipha, amandla okuxhasa amaxabiso entsimbi ayancipha;Okwesithathu, kule veki yi-Federal Reserve kunye ne-European Central Bank ixesha lokuhlangana kwefestile, nayo i-2201 inkontileka kwinyanga yokuhanjiswa ngaphambi kwesigaba somdlalo, ixesha elide kwaye lingenanto.
1. Ubukhulu becala
Umsebenzi wezoqoqosho wowama-2022 ufuna ukuba siqhubele phambili ngokuthe chu kwaye senze inkqubela-phambili ezinzileyo, siqhubeke nokuphumeza umgaqo-nkqubo wemali osebenzayo kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali onobulumko, senze utyalo-mali olukwiziseko ezingundoqo ezifanelekileyo, kwaye sikhuthaze umjikelo ophilileyo kunye nophuhliso olusempilweni loshishino lwezindlu nezindlu ngokusebenzisa idolophu. imigaqo-nkqubo, musa ukubandakanyeka ezemidlalo "ukunciphisa iCarbon".Okwangoku, imfuno yenkxaso-mali yoqoqosho lokwenyani lwaseTshayina ibuthathaka, ukusetyenziswa kunye notyalo-mali alwanelanga, urhwebo lwangaphandle lwangaphandle lugcina ukukhula okukhawulezayo, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo enkulu ishushu.
Imeko yohlobo ngalunye lwemathiriyeli ekrwada
1. Intsimbi yentsimbi
Ukusukela kule veki, ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi kunye nokufika kwentsimbi eHong Kong zombini zehlile ngokwesicwangciso sokuhambisa kunye nesigqi sokuhambisa.Nangona kunjalo, ngokuphakanyiswa kwezithintelo zemveliso eTangshan kunye nezicwangciso zokuphinda kuqalise ukuveliswa kwezitovu eziqhumayo kweminye imimandla, imveliso yentsimbi eshushu iya kunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwinqanaba elithile, nangona kunjalo, ukonyuka kwemveliso yentsimbi eshushu kulinganiselwe phantsi kokhuseleko lokusingqongileyo, isitokhwe sezibuko. ayitshintshi i-trend yokuqokelela, i-gap ye-supply-demand isakhululekile, kwaye ixabiso lihlala libuthathaka.
(2) I-Coke yamalahle
(3) inkunkuma
Imarike yeemveliso ezigqityiweyo ekunyukeni okuqhubekayo emva kokuba imeko yengqondo ithande ukulumka, idityaniswa nokufika okulandelayo kwe-off-season, ukugcinwa kwebusika kuzisa uxinzelelo olukhulu, ixesha elifutshane okanye ukufowunelwa kukothuka.Ukusuka kwimbono yokwahlukana kwenkunkuma ye-screw kunye ne-plate yenkunkuma eyahlukileyo, i-steel mill yangoku isenayo inzuzo ethile, kodwa ngokuqwalasela izinto ezifana nokunciphisa imveliso ebusika kumntla we-China kunye nokulawulwa kabini kokusetyenziswa kwamandla, imfuno yentsimbi ye-scrap ayiphucukanga ngokucacileyo. ;ngokwembono yokwahlukana kwesinyithi esilahliweyo, ixabiso langoku lentsimbi yentsimbi sele liphezulu kunexabiso lentsimbi etyhidiweyo, inzuzo yezoqoqosho ye-scrap iyancipha, kwaye ukuzimisela ukuthenga i-scrap buthathaka ngokujonga inkqubo ende.Ukongeza, xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iimveliso unyaka nonyaka, amaxabiso alahliweyo ebekwinqanaba eliphezulu, kukho umngcipheko wokuhla.Isigwebo esibanzi, amaxabiso alahliweyo kulindeleke ukuba ehle kancinci kule veki.
(4) billet
Ingeniso ye-billet iyacotha, iqhuba imiba ukusuka ekuthotyweni kweendleko ukuya kwixabiso lokubuyela kwakhona.Indawo yaseTangshan yokukhusela imveliso rhoqo, unikezelo kunye nemfuno ephindwe kabini imeko ebuthathaka, ukuphindaphinda kwexabiso kukhokelwa ikakhulu yimarike yekamva.Ukususela kumbono wemarike yangoku, ngokusekelwe ekukhutshweni okuqhubekayo kunye nobunzima bokunikezelwa kwe-billet, phantsi kwendawo yokusebenza yezityalo zentsimbi ezisezantsi, isitokhwe seemveliso ezigqityiweyo kwisityalo siyaqhubeka nokuhla, kunye nesimo esiphantsi sempahla ephantsi yeefektri ezininzi eziyekiweyo. sele ibangele ukuba i-phenomenon yokungabikho kweentlobo ezahlukeneyo kunye neenkcukacha, imvakalelo yokuqalisa kwakhona imveliso kunye nokubuyisela kwakhona iya kuba yinto evelele, kwaye ukunciphisa indleko yentsimbi yokugoqa kuya kubangela ukwanda okubonakalayo kwimveliso kunye nenzuzo yokuthengisa.Ukongezelela, umkhwa wokunciphisa ubuninzi beebhilidi zensimbi ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ezifika kwi-Port ziyabonakala, okanye imeko ye-dredging porting iya kugcinwa ngokuqhubekayo, oku kuzisa amaxabiso e-billet kwinqanaba eliphantsi lokuqalisa kwakhona kwamandla okuqhuba ixabiso.Nangona kunjalo, ukusuka kwindlela yokusebenza yemarike yangoku, ukugqwesa okuhambelanayo kwe-pessimism, kwinqanaba elithile, impembelelo yamaxabiso e-billet iqhubekile phezulu.Amaxabiso abanzi alindelekileyo eebillet zexesha elifutshane aya kubonisa imeko “yenkxaso esezantsi, ukonyuka okulinganiselweyo”.
Ubume beemveliso zetsimbi ezahlukeneyo
(1) intsimbi yokwakha
Kule veki, icala lokubonelela linokuba nzima ukutshintsha kakhulu, nangona inzuzo yokugaya insimbi ilungisiwe, ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwamandla kwanda, kodwa ngeMidlalo yeOlimpiki yaseBusika kunye nezithintelo zokuvelisa ekwindla nasebusika, igumbi elilinganiselweyo lokubuyisela imveliso.Ngokubhekiselele kumjikelo wexesha, umkhwa wokuncipha kwemfuno kuya kuba nzima ukuwutshintsha njengoko imozulu ipholile kwaye uMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo usondela.Nangona kunjalo, ukususela ngoNovemba ukuya kuthi ga ngoku imeko yentengiselwano kulo lonke ilizwe, ukusebenza ngokubanzi kwethoni yemfuno ngokuqinileyo ekhokeleni.Nangona ummandla osemntla usanda kubandezeleka ngenxa yempembelelo yokupholisa, kodwa njengemfuno ephambili kweli nqanaba lommandla osezantsi, imozulu yexesha elifutshane ayichaphazeli indawo yokwakha, imfuno epheleleyo kwiveki ezayo okanye iya kugcinwa.Okwangoku ingenile kwinqanaba logcino lwasebusika, impuma nakumazantsi eTshayina ifuna iindawo eziphambili ngokuthe ngcembe zandise umlinganiselo wokugqitywa kwesiza, i-terminal eyona nto ifuna ukuphuculwa.Ke ngoko, amaxabiso e-rebar anokuchasana, phantsi kwenqanaba elithile lenkxaso, edityaniswe namaxabiso entsimbi yokwakhiwa kwasekhaya kule veki okanye aya kuba yintlupheko ebuthathaka.
(2) iipleyiti eziphakathi nezinzima
Kwicala lokubonelela, iNorth Steel Mills iphinde yaqala imveliso enye emva kwenye kwixesha elizayo elingekude.Kwimpuma yeTshayina, ukunyuka kwemveliso yeyona nto iphambili, kwaye imveliso yeplate ephakathi kwilizwe lonke ibonise umgangatho ophantsi wokuphinda ubuyele.Kulindeleke ukuba imveliso yexesha elifutshane isenayo indawo encinci yokunyuka.Ekujikelezweni, ukhuphiswano lwee-odolo zeplate eziqhelekileyo lunoburhalarhume, imfuno yokuqikelelwa kweemarike imbi, into eyenziwa yintsimbi yentsimbi evumela amaxabiso ukuba athathe ii-odolo zicacile, uxinzelelo oluphantsi lwe-alloy luncinci, okwangoku lugcina umahluko omkhulu wexabiso kunye ne-General. Ibhodi;kwicala lemfuno, imfuno iyonke icinezelekile, yongeza impembelelo yeziganeko ezithile zezempilo zommandla, umlambo osezantsi, indawo yokugcina impahla ivaliwe, akukho phuculo olubonakalayo olulindelekileyo kwixesha elifutshane.Integrated Forecast, kule veki amaxabiso plate ukusebenza buthathaka.
(3) ukubanda kunye neHot Rolling
Ngokombono wokubonelela, ukuveliswa kwexesha elifutshane lokutshisa okutshisa kunye nokubanda kusezantsi, ngakumbi ukuveliswa kwe-hot rolling kunye ne-cold rolling kulindeleke ukuba kubuyele kwinqanaba le-2.9 yezigidi zeetoni / ngeveki ngoDisemba kunye ukugqitywa kokulungiswa ngokutsha, ngenxa yenzuzo yangoku ye-hot rolling mill, imarike iyonke inokuqaliswa okuqinileyo kokulindela imveliso, kodwa nokuqinisekisa isiseko semveliso sonyaka ozayo.Ukususela kumbono wemfuno, ukusetyenziswa kwexesha elifutshane kufuneka nje kugcinwe, kodwa kulo nyaka kukho ukulindela kwangaphambili kweeholide, kulo lonke ikhonkco, ukusetyenziswa kwixesha elifutshane akukho ndawo eqaqambileyo eqaqambileyo;ukongeza, iintsimbi zentsimbi zemiyalelo kaJanuwari zisalindeleke ukuba zihlupheke, uxinzelelo lwexesha elifutshane ukusuka ezantsi ukuya phezulu, ii-odolo kunye neengxaki zolungelelwaniso lwexesha elide zisezona ngxaki zicacileyo ezibetha isiphelo sendawo, loo mfuno isalindeleke ukuba iyancipha.Ngokombono wemithombo yemarike, kwelinye icala, ngenxa yokuba uninzi lweentsimbi zensimbi ziphantsi koxinzelelo olukhulu lokufumana imiyalelo, ngoDisemba, ukuze kuzaliswe imiyalelo, iintsimbi zetsimbi ezifumana imiyalelo zazinokuziphatha kokunciphisa amaxabiso kunye nokuthunyelwa kweentengiso kuphela. ngaphantsi kwexabiso lemarike yendawo, kukho iindleko zezibonelelo ezingaphantsi kwamaxabiso angoku kwimarike.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngokubuyiswa kwemveliso yensimbi, imarike iya kwandisa ngokuthe ngcembe umthamo wempahla, uxinzelelo lweemarike lubonakaliswa ngokuthe ngcembe.Ke ngoko, xa lilonke, unikezelo kunye noxinzelelo lwemfuno ngokuthe ngcembe luphantsi koxinzelelo, kwangaxeshanye ekufikeni komthamo owandisiweyo kunye nabarhwebi bafuna ukukhupha imali, kwaye ngoDisemba ezinye izixhobo eziphantsi kwexabiso eliphantsi ziya kwimarike, indawo eshushu nebandayo. amaxabiso kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke nokusebenza buthathaka.
(4) intsimbi engenasici
Okwangoku, imfuno yensimbi engenastainless iyonke ayibonisi zimpawu zokuphucula, uluhlu olupheleleyo lukwinqanaba eliphezulu, uvakalelo lwemarike lusalawulwa kukungathembeki, kodwa imarike inokuvuselelwa ziindaba zokunciphisa imveliso yentsimbi iye yaguquguquka. , Inkxalabo enkulu malunga nokutshintsha kweemeko zokurhweba, amaxabiso angama-304 kulindeleke ukuba aguquke kule veki.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-14-2021